Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 11.711727 13.410786 15.240887 17.355105 19.726511 22.300530 25.302108
2025-06-29 9.069076 11.340159 13.977228 17.251018 21.190573 25.762040 31.450774
2025-07-06 7.319134 9.703011 12.611400 16.394679 21.156786 26.920462 34.389002
2025-07-13 6.522326 9.096690 12.374284 16.811144 22.612015 29.884419 39.629148
2025-07-20 5.879531 8.573044 12.132121 17.118659 23.853437 32.552566 44.542725
2025-07-27 5.228289 7.950434 11.675071 17.063566 24.563021 34.518871 48.598747
2025-08-03 4.639356 7.340801 11.160521 16.854526 25.002827 36.096317 52.158790
2025-08-10 4.203407 6.901605 10.834587 16.861144 25.707410 38.030046 56.255489
2025-08-17 3.870018 6.578271 10.639525 17.023482 26.616307 40.261865 60.838450
2025-08-24 3.530394 6.208413 10.337128 16.989815 27.214684 42.054638 64.849758
2025-08-31 3.206321 5.829623 9.984876 16.843182 27.616236 43.556475 68.478116
2025-09-07 2.978165 5.585693 9.820987 16.968187 28.421810 45.670442 73.074575
2025-09-14 2.835408 5.479103 9.877571 17.458500 29.839429 48.796959 79.374125
2025-09-21 2.578537 5.148159 9.536784 17.275768 30.175468 50.282681 83.241609
2025-09-28 2.240018 4.634241 8.841015 16.444475 29.398584 49.978256 84.294572
2025-10-05 2.136841 4.546501 8.875772 16.852684 30.675916 52.961592 90.616330
2025-10-12 2.027414 4.435562 8.858580 17.164218 31.798950 55.734291 96.699526
2025-10-19 1.875194 4.225487 8.643908 17.107824 32.283622 57.478088 101.177636
2025-10-26 1.716986 3.987245 8.357291 16.898708 32.484230 58.749666 104.917860
2025-11-02 1.600031 3.822284 8.195618 16.905198 33.057952 60.658835 109.773311
2025-11-09 1.511029 3.707619 8.121550 17.067964 33.913836 63.072578 115.553559
2025-11-16 1.407378 3.550663 7.951421 17.034201 34.405351 64.872170 120.347819
2025-11-23 1.300676 3.375920 7.731462 16.887233 34.675013 66.288106 124.523965